Papabile

 Pope Francis has been in the hospital for a week and a half at this writing.  Ten days are not so many for an old man, even in this era of shortened stays. Nonetheless, when you are the pope, every sneeze is greeted by worldwide murmurs of "conclave." 

Let us say from the outset that we wish Francis nothing but the best. He has been as fine a pope as it is possible to be given the realities of the Smalcald Articles 2:4:10 and their reiteration in the Formula.  We hope that he recovers and is able to serve the church for at least a few more good years, and failing that we wish him a speedy and painless return to his maker.

But one wonders, inevitably, what the future may hold for the world's largest Christian communion, which encompasses roughly half the planet's believers.  Outsiders, especially the press, frequently imagine that popes are like politicians, easily defined by adherence to a platform and described by "right" or "left." Insiders assure us, and we at the Egg firmly believe, that this is by no means the case.  All the conceivable candidates are bound by the same shared commitments and convictions: the same Scriptures, the same historic teachings, the same canon laws. There will be no pro-choice pope, no pope who ordains women priests, just as there will be no pope who despises the poor or encourages international violence.

But there are differences of style and emphasis. John Paul II and Benedict XVI were both "conservatives," as the press would style them, but only one wore red shoes. ( John Paul in fact introduced the same photogenically simple attire for which Francis is sometimes scorned by his opponents.) John Paul and Benedict were both scholars, Francis is not. John Paul and Francis were both far more comfortable mingling with crowds and kissing babies than Benedict ever appeared to be.  Benedict alone seemed to have a real softness for the Tridentine Mass and its advocates; both John Paul and Francis appeared to see them as troublemakers, if not outright enemies. Not one of the the three was a native of Italy, a fact of some historical importance.  It is factors like these, no less than doctrine and surely more than politics, which will influence whichever cardinals vote in the next conclave -- whenever that may be.

Those important things said, perhaps we can relax and play a little bit.  Predictably, the gambling houses have begun to lay odds on who will follow Francis, as well as what regnal name he will take. We have recently seen a story by the Asbury Park Press, which takes its information from something called BetUS. It identifies these potential popes, and gives them odds:

• Luis Antonio Tagle: +300
• Mark Ouellet: +400
• Pietro Parolin: +400
• Francis Arinze: +500
• Peter Turkson: +600
• Peter Erdo: +600
• Willem Eljk: +600

We have no idea who drafted the list, but we suspect it is nonsense. For one thing, Arinze is now 90 years old. Ouellet is 80. Not one in the group was elevated by Francis, although a large majority of the cardinals elector will have been. A couple look slightly nuts. On the other hand, Parolin seems … viable. 

But you know what they say about the man who goes into a conclave papabile, right? He leaves a cardinal.